"He does a lot of cool s--- with his arm," an NFC exec said. Franchise or Not? Ranking Josh Allen, Baker Mayfield, More If they opt for the former, Garoppolo is a strong fit and could keep Tampa's championship window open for a few more years. Thats $38.89 million, for a two-year take of $71.31 million. Women's Champ Week predictions: Which teams will win the auto bids in all 32 conferences? It might be difficult to make out the curve for Jones and Minshew as theyre almost directly on top of each other between Murrays and Haskins. 1-caliber wide receiver capable of winning consistently. How Cardinals QB Kyler Murray got bigger but stayed fast for Year 2, The best (and worst) NFL QBs at everything. The only quarterback worse than Haskins in terms of EPA forecast is Josh Rosen, who Im declaring a bust already despite not having finished out his rookie deal. CBS Sports is a registered trademark of CBS Broadcasting Inc. Commissioner.com is a registered trademark of CBS Interactive Inc. site: media | arena: nfl | pageType: stories | Keep in mind when viewing these results that higher-drafted quarterbacks have an advantage with their forecasts, so a very strong rookie performer like Russell Wilson wont look nearly as strong as a weaker one like Andrew Luck due to the massive difference in draft status. Johnston is a lengthy wide receiver with great top-end speed. The plot below shows the progression of the passing grade Bayesian forecast for every rookie quarterback from 2007-2019 with at least 200 dropbacks. The simplest option is sometimes the best one and that is certainly the case here. They offer extra big-play ability and red zone prowess. A true dual-threat quarterback who was listed by Florida at 6-foot-4, 232 pounds, Richardson has a simple target on the stopwatch. He's a runner. While Carr isn't coming off his best season, he still managed to earn a Pro Bowl nod after completing 60.8 percent of his passes for 3,522 yards and 24 touchdowns. The second plot shows quarterbacks who didnt maintain starter status beyond their rookie deal, or players we would consider failed picks.. NFL footage NFL Productions LLC. Pick: No. New York is in deep negotiations with QB Daniel Jones, looking to extend the 25-year-old and solidify him as their franchise quarterback. Joe Schoen talks Daniel Jones' free agency, 2023 draft strategy The Giants drafted Jones and finally saw him blossom into a quality starter last year. Jones being more durable with better protecting and playmaking personnel is one big part of the equation. As a rushing threat willing to take off when his receivers are covered, Jones could thrive with some of the same offensive concepts deployed by McDaniels when Cam Newton averaged 9.1 carries per game for the 2020 Patriots. If it did, we wouldnt have contract offers out to both of them. section: | slug: nfl-draft-2023-pro-comparisons-for-top-qbs-prospects-with-former-nfl-gm-making-patrick-mahomes-comparison | sport: football | route: article_single.us | Previously a college football reporter for CBSSports.com. Pick: No. The Giants had been hoping for Jones price tag to come in around $30 to $40 million, which would place him in the middle-class tier of quarterback salaries that also includes Dak Prescott and Kirk Cousins. Jones finished the year roughly where he started, as the analysis expects rookies to perform worse in their first season than in the rest of their careers. "When I got to high school, just seeing how dynamic Lamar (Jackson) was, I tried to implement both of those guys in my life. Pick: No. But Jones still finished 18th in QBR at 53.6, and threw for 24 touchdown passes in 12 starts. How will New York Giants quarterback Daniel Jones, the No. In the 2019 draft, three quarterbacks were selected in the first round: Heisman Trophy winner Kyler Murray at first overall, Daniel Jones at No. He got beat up over the course of the season, suffering a high ankle sprain in December that cost him two games. Shepard, a good hands route-runner who can boost any QB when healthy (see Week 1), missed 10 games the past two seasons. His 38.1-point drop from inside to outside the pocket, was the sixth largest in the NFL last season. Like the Falcons, the Raiders have plenty of space ($48.4 million) to make meaningful additions this offseason. The lack of proven pass-catching depth behind Terry McLaurin is a problem for some evaluators. They got left tackle Nate Solder and right guard Kevin Zeiter well past their prime with previous teams. There havent been any successes since 2007 for rookies who performed as poorly as Haskins in terms of EPA per dropback. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, the average true air distance of his completions was 19.4 yards, the seventh highest in the NFL, and higher than Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen and Matt Ryan. "He has come a long way," one NFL defensive coach said. Make no mistake: Murray is not a run-first quarterback. Carr would allow the team to balance out the offense more and unlock the talents of DJ Moore and Terrace Marshall Jr. Carr may not want to go to a rebuilding team at the age of 31, however, and Carolina still has a lot of improvements to make outside the QB position after selling off established talents like Christian McCaffrey and Robbie Anderson last season. Many expected Murray to take off more behind a suspect offensive line, but he averaged 4.9 rushing attempts per game over the final nine games, strengthening those future Russell Wilson comps as a run-to-throw QB. Regardless, New Orleans' front office should be able to find enough funds to land the Pro Bowl quarterback the team has needed since Drew Brees' retirement. However, Newton won a lot more games in college, and was much more consistent. The first-round of the 2019 NFL Draft has produced one superstar quarterback in Cardinals No. Draft The browser you are using is no longer supported on this site. While Jones may be pricyhe reportedly wants $45 million a year on his new deal, per PFT's Mike Florioand may not ever become a Hall of Fame-caliber signal-caller, he's a dynamic player with scrambling abilities and creativity that allowed the team to overcome a lack of high-end wideouts. Still, question marks still exist, and every dollar the Giants invest in Jones is a dollar they cant use to build the rest of their roster around him. Ja'Wuan James' opt-out forces Elijah Wilkinson into action, and the Broncos declined the fifth-year option of left tackle Garett Bolles, which isn't a great sign for a player at a premium position. He went a respectable 8-8 as a rookie, but displayed a propensity for turnovershe had 21 interceptions against 12 touchdownsand inaccurate throws, evidenced by his meager 55.8 percent completion rate. While his touchdown numbers weren't amazinghe only threw 15 in 16 gameshe limited his mistakes, throwing just five interceptions after coming into the season with 29 over his first 38 contests. Not that it's easy. Whether it be Anthony Richardson at the end of the first round, Hendon Hooker in round two, or a wild trade-up scenario for CJ Stroud proposed by CBS Sports, there are many opportunities for the Giants to draft a quarterback this spring. Our single-season grades, which dont account for draft position prior or dropback volume, had Minshew as the best rookie quarterback of the class (70.0). With only one franchise tag at their disposal, can New York reach a long-term agreement with at least one of its high-profile free agents? "And he's a tough dude. Theres no Desmond Ridder on the Raiders roster. One of Lock's biggest issues could be edge protection. The non-exclusive franchise tag would allow the Giants to retain Jones for one year and a fully guaranteed $32.416 million. Draft "He does a great job for a small quarterback with his vision down the field. He's long been the focal point of this offense, but the pressure can be taken off and the aging running back's career can be extended with a more serviceable quarterback under center. Here are the odds for Daniel Jones' being the Giants' 2022 starting QB. The Stidham train screeched abruptly to a halt with the signing of Cam Newton to a one-year, incentive-laden deal in New England. Signing Jackson would be the latest and one of the greatest in franchise history if they can pull it off. Jones would be the best quarterback Washington has employed since Kirk Cousins left after the 2017 campaign. 14 overall player and No. The odds of getting one starter increase by taking two. New league weeks start every Thursday with TNF kickoff. Below Ive plotted the year-end forecasts for passing grade and EPA per dropback for each of the 45 rookie quarterbacks with at least 200 dropbacks. Michigan cornerback DJ Turner II is the early leader for fastest player at the 2023 NFL Scouting Combine after posting a time of 4.26 seconds in the 40-yard dash on Friday. Sterling Shepard traded the concussion that cost him games early in 2019 for turf toe. QBs The No. Sixty quarterbacks attempted at least 50 passes in 2022 Mariota, Ridder, and Jones were among the 13 signal-callers who used play action on at least 30 percent of their dropbacks. Houston could start to establish a winning culture and work on fleshing out the roster around Jimmy G before handing the reins to their future franchise signal-caller in 2024. Just growing and continue to grow.". On the flip side, Dwayne Haskins fizzled out fast in Washington and is looking to save his career as a backup in Pittsburgh. 2 free agent for a reason: Hes a young quarterback with a first-round pedigree who experienced a great deal of success last season. Haskins had the second-best grade of the group (67.6). Have great running ability as well. The only team with more cap space than the Falcons is the Bears, who are not in the market for a veteran quarterback. Pick: No. Youre starting to feel the time crunch a little bit, Schoen said. 4 quarterback, The Giants have been trying to fix their front five for a while. Although Vegas and Jackson would be a strong fit, there is one better place for him in 2023. 10:17 am ET, NFL combine 2023: Winners and losers from DB workouts, WR Jordan Addison tells Steelers to 'come get me', TCU's Johnston hopeful to surprise at NFL combine, Cunningham on USFL talk: I'm not playing in that, NFL Draft 2023: Former NFL GM on pro comps for WR, TE, Levis wants to show off his 'cannon' at NFL combine, Perfect Giants NFL Draft plan: Get a No. Thomas played well against a tough Denver pass rush, but Solder was a disaster in his return, a shell of his former Patriots self at age 33. Beyond sorting through the quarterback conundrum, the Giants have needs to address at wide receiver, cornerback and the interior offensive line. For a team like the Texans, he could be the proven winner and steady veteran hand the club needs to return to prominence. What will define Eric Bieniemy's success? Houston is coming off a brutal three-year stretch in which the team has won a mere 11 games while churning through four head coaches and trying multiple options out under center. Perfect Giants 2023 NFL Draft plan: Get Daniel Jones (or another QB) a No. The other is getting the right play-calling from Garrett that takes full advantage of Jones' immense physical tools at 6-5, 230 pounds. Vinnie Iyer is an NFL writer at The Sporting News. The New York Giants are reportedly doing their due diligence on the quarterback class ahead of the 2023 NFL Draft. The team still has plenty of potential and just needs the right hand to guide the offense. Hamler in the draft to fuel an already solid playmaking unit. In all likelihood, the Giants will forego any opportunity to draft a quarterback prospect with one of their top picks. "Using my hips. NFL and the NFL shield design are registered trademarks of the National Football League.The team names, logos and uniform designs are registered trademarks of the teams indicated. Jones offers a different skill set. Murrays range of outcomes based on passing efficiency according to EPA per dropback is separated from the others, but theres still a lot of overlap between all the quarterbacks. Schoen said New York had productive conversations with Jones and Barkleys representatives at the Scouting Combine this week, adding hed prefer not to use the tag on either player. If the Titans want to turn over a more youthful leaf, a young quarterback like Jones who is nine years Tannehills junior could make sense. The season has come to a close for most NFL teams, and now is the time of reflection and reassessment. Mayfield's rookie-record 27 touchdowns came in 13 starts and most of a 14th game in 2018. I wish we were a little bit closer on a deal than what we are right now. The team already came to terms with a new head coach in Frank Reich and just needs a viable piece under center to start contending as early as next season. While Jones has every right to target his preferred salary range, New York has every right to use the franchise tag and re-assess next offseason. The Jets are downright desperate for a capable quarterback at this point and Smith proved himself to be the most competent of all the currently available free agents at the position last year. With our live draft lobby, you can be drafting a team in minutes. How Murray offsets his 5-foot-9 frame with the ability to throw from the pocket is part Neo from "The Matrix" and part shortstop turning two. "Growing up, it was always Cam Newton for me," Richardson acknowledged. But again, theres still time.. CBS Sports is a registered trademark of CBS Broadcasting Inc. Commissioner.com is a registered trademark of CBS Interactive Inc. site: media | arena: nfl | pageType: stories | By inking Jones this offseason, the Commanders would both finally have the young, talented quarterback they have long coveted and leave the New York Giants with a hole at the most important position. Spielman and host Ryan Wilson also handed out their comparisons for the other top quarterbacks in the class. Because Jones and running back Saquon Barkley both put up outstanding seasons in their walk years, the Giants are now faced with a fascinating offseason tree. At his end-of-season press conference in January, Giants general manager Joe Schoen all but admitted he would use the franchise tender on Jones if forced to choose. Still, that may be the only "con. That was plan was ruined when Barkley struggled against the Steelers' mighty defense in Week 1 and went down with a season-ending torn ACL against the Bears in Week 2. But the Jaguars really do like Minshew, whose 3.5 touchdown-to-interception ratio topped all rookies. First-year general manager Ran Carthon said this week hes excited about moving forward with Tannehill, who has a $36.6 million cap charge in 2023. On Thursday, Schoen told NFL Network that things ramped up pretty quick with Jones new representation but also suggested that a contract agreement was not imminent. 14 overall player and No. Interior OL | Edge Although the two never found success together in their first stopAllen was canned after an 0-4 start to Carr's rookie seasonthe pairing could bear fruit this time around. It doesnt have to be that way. Jones and Minshew are in the middle of the pack with the 22nd- and 28th-ranked forecasts, respectively. 8 overall pick in the upcoming draft and the aforementioned pool of available cap space. 15 | 2019 QBR: 26.8 There have been a few flashes with big passes and big runs, but the proficiency and the efficiency have not been there. Daniel Jones draft, revisited: Why Giants QB is on the The following browsers are supported: Chrome, Edge (v80 and later), Firefox and Safari. These play-by-play grades are the foundation of the first section of the rookie quarterback forecasts. Atlanta has already released Marcus Mariota, a 13-game starter in 2022, leaving last years third-round pick, Desmond Ridder, as the clubs current starter. Copyright 2019-2023. "But since he's so small, everybody's going to be nervous as heck to take him, because one, is he going to be durable enough to go through a preseason, go through 17 games, go through -- if they get all the way to the Super Bowl -- that many games and stay healthy? The team has also some promising wideoutsincluding 2022 first-rounder Treylon Burkswho could see their development sped up working with Smith. 1-caliber WR, Picks for Saturday's top college basketball games, Ex-Patriots star McGinest facing 8 years in prison, Celtics booed off floor after blowing 28-point lead to Nets, LSU responds after Dunne promotes AI homework tool, Big 12 contacts four Pac-12 schools on potential move, NFL combine 2023 results tracker: Top performances. It is highly recommended that you use the latest versions of a supported browser in order to receive an optimal viewing experience. Peyton Manning and Wilson once shared the record at 26, and each started all 16 games in their first year. "I think he has a lot of Patrick Mahomes style to him, and by that I mean he is one of the best off-schedule throwers that I've seen coming out of the collegiate game," Spielman said. Most of the successful rookie quarterbacks produced forecasts in the upper half of the plot post-rookie season, with Lamar Jackson, Jared Goff and Derek Carr being the only successes below Minshew and Jones. Daniel Jones Pro Football Network strives to passionately deliver purposeful, captivating, and exceptional football content. Here's who Spielman had: C.J. He was locked back into Slayton and Shepard, too. The first plot highlights the 2019 class in red along with the quarterbacks who either maintained starting status beyond their rookie contracts or have yet to finish them. I found in a previous analysis that combining passing grade- and EPA-based Bayesian forecasts in roughly equal proportions can predict a quarterbacks EPA per dropback better than either alone. Kyler has that release.". I'm just gonna showcase that tomorrow.". No. However, Jones success in New York was due at least in part to the offensive structure created by Daboll and Kafka. 1 overall picks typically have better careers than quarterbacks taken lower in the draft, even those in the top half of the first round like Jones and Haskins. Quarterback Mike White said he'd like to return to the New York Jets, but knows it might not happen as he heads toward free agency. NFL Draft 2023: Pro comparisons for top QBs prospects, He's been a steady hand for the Raiders over the better part of the last decade and could revitalize his career in Carolina. For now, Ryan Tannehill is still Tennessees projected starting quarterback. Tight end Evan Engram did help a second-year Jones as a security blanket after missing most of '19, but he's hurt again. The Titans know a thing or two about having a cast-off quarterback excel for their program. "Giants can work with that.". Where Giants, QB Daniel Jones currently stand on contract terms He's able to make all the throws and still has enough mobility to extend plays and avoid the rush. Baltimore has built a contender around Jackson, and while it hasn't panned out due to injuries these last two seasons, there will be plenty more chances in the coming years. The line was subpar and his two elite players -- Saquon Barkley and Evan Engram -- battled injuries. Daniel Jones Free Agency Predictions: Landing Spots Include Stat to know from ESPN Stats & Information: Haskins pushed the ball down the field in 2019. They all add up to putting Jones on the brinkof being abig NFL draft bust, unless he can turn things around quickly. In 34 career games at Alabama, Young accounted for 87 total touchdowns. Over those 27 games, Joneshas committed 40 turnovers 22 interceptions and 18 lost fumbles. New York is in deep negotiations with While they haven't yet locked him up to a long-term deal, they would be remiss not to keep him under contract after honing his talent over the last four seasons. The franchise tag looms over contract talks between Daniel Jones and the New York Giants. Turner has the fastest time of this year's draft class so far. Although Jackson's asking price is reportedly highESPN's Jeremy Fowler and Jamison Hensley noted the signal-caller is seeking a similar contract to the fully guaranteed five-year, $230 million one Deshaun Watson signed with the Cleveland Browns last yearit's a figure the Ravens should be willing to meet rather than risk the franchise struggling through lean years while trying to find another franchise quarterback. ", What will define Eric Bieniemy's success? The Jets were nothing short of fantastic on defense last year. His feel and creativity at that level were Giants exploring quarterback options in 2023 NFL Draft I'm still not sure and he's gotta prove it, but we're gonna see what he does with those weapons -- big-time weapons.". But on the off chance Jones actually reaches the open market, several NFL teams could potentially express interest in the former first-rounder. Kentucky's Will Levis, a likely top-10 pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, spoke Friday at the NFL Scouting Combine and -- in under 15 minutes -- presented himself as arguably the most self-assured QB in this year's class. He had that rep coming out of college. Denver is willing Lock's success into existence, doubling down on receivers Jerry Jeudy and K.J. After failing to distinguish himself for the Jets, Smith bounced around the league and languished on several benches. Raiders head coach Josh McDaniels is most well-known for his work with Tom Brady in New England, and he coached another pocket passer in Carr last season. This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google. With Tannehill in a new destination via either trade or release, Tennessee would only have one quarterback on its roster: 2022 third-round selection Malik Willis. Young quarterbacks with Jones pedigree dont often hit the open market, and the Titans would have to at least consider a pursuit if the Giants fail to retain him. After parting ways with Derek Carr, Vegas should consider a younger signal-caller with plenty left in the tank. A second-round pick is not guaranteed to succeed, so cornerback is one position New York could afford to be volume shooters in this draft class. Jones is a great fit for Big Blue and things should only get better in 2023 if he remains under center. I laid out a more detailed explanation about the methodology behind this analysis in a previous article when I applied it to the 2017 quarterback class. Top QB in draft: I definitely don't want to play for 1 team Daniel Jones actually wants more than $45M per. I talked to a handful of scouts last night Every single one of them said Anthony Richardson is the best QB interview theyve had this year.'. However, negotiations with Jones have been difficult, per reports, and the Giants are doing research on quarterback prospects at this weeks Scouting Combine, seemingly as a contingency plan. It was reported last week that the Giants were one of five teams that met extensively with Tennessee QB prospect Hendon Hooker at the 2023 Senior Bowl. ", It's not too late to play with friends and family. Applying Bayesian updating to each dropback for all of the 2019 rookies gives us a best guess forecast for true passing grade for each quarterback, along with ranges of outcomes that reflect the confidence we should have in our assessments. All other NFL-related trademarks are trademarks of the National Football League. We can use Bayesian updating and what we know about the variance of quarterback performance to also produce a range of outcomes for each quarterback. All Rights Reserved. He ran for more than 70 yards one time, in Week 5 against Cincinnati (10 rushes, 93 yards). Copyright 2023 Sporting News Holdings Limited. If Garrett isn't the answer, the Giants need to make to change there, too, looking for one last offenisve spark for Jones. Hes incredible in the areas Levis and Richardson struggle withhe knows how to throw the appropriate ball, with the right touch and timing. The least efficient quarterback this season was Haskins, and he was significantly worse than Jones (-0.24). All four of the 2019 rookies are below the 50% percentile in grade forecast, though Murrays is roughly in the 85% percentile for EPA forecast. If the Falcons want to start winning games regularly again in 2023, there's no better free-agent quarterback for the club than Garoppolo. New York Giants Draft Prospect: RB Jahmyr Gibbs The Dallas Cowboys will place the franchise tag on running back Tony Pollard if the two sides cannot reach a long-term deal before March 7's deadline, NFL Network Insider Ian Rapoport reported Friday, per sources. Several personnel evaluators believe tight end Noah Fant and wide receiver Courtland Sutton are top-10 players at their position right now. Georgia quarterback Stetson Bennett spoke with media members on Friday for the first time since his arrest for public intoxication in late January. The Cleveland Browns and New York Jets had to rebuild the position in the offseason to help their quarterbacks. The 31-year-old could have similar success in Atlanta. Few veteran quarterbacks would be a better fit for this team than Derek Carr. 178 | 2019 QBR: 42.6 (26th) The $37M-AAV range has emerged as a sweet spot here; that would check in around the price of a 2024 Jones franchise tag. The Ravens should lock up their incumbent starting quarterback to a long-term deal well before he has a chance to hit the open market. The New Orleans Saints have been one of Carr's most notable suitors since he was benched by the Raiders and left the team late in the 2022 campaign. Working with first-year Giants head coach Brian Daboll and offensive coordinator Mike Kafka, Jones set career highs in completion rate (67.2 percent) and passing yards (3,205) while leading the NFL with a 1.1 percent interception rate.
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